The Scottish referendum: Bookies were predicting an 80 percent possibility of a ‘no’ vote, as the polls were contradictory and inaccurate.
Did bookies understand the results for the Scottish referendum in advance, while polls were way off the mark? It sure appears that way.
Scotland has voted to stay in the UK, with 55.3 per cent of voters determining against dissolving the union that is 300-year of and going it alone. Many were surprised that the margin between winning and losing votes was as wide as 10 percent; a number of polls had predicted that the result was too close to phone and that the ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ promotions were split straight down the middle.
The fact is, polls were all around the place: contradictory and fluctuating wildly. They ranged from the six-point lead for the ‘yes’ vote to a seven point lead for the ‘no’ vote in the weeks leading up to the referendum. And although these were precisely predicting a ‘no’ vote on the eve of the special day, they considerably underestimated the margin of the ‘No’ victory.
Margins of Error
Maybe Not the bookies, though. It was had by them all figured down ages ago. Whilst the pollsters’ predictions had been see-sawing, online activities wagering outfit Betfair had already decided to spend bettors who had their cash on a’no’ vote a few days ahead of the referendum even occurred. And while there was clearly a whiff of a PR stunt about that announcement, it was made from th “Bookies Beat Pollsters in Scottish Referendum” の続きを読む